Waymo hiding their use of fossil fuel energy

Waymo often makes claims about how their robotaxi service is “clean” and beneficial for our communities. They tout that all of their energy is renewable. Yet when we dug into the data we found that Waymo is actively hiding from the public the source of their electricity for charging their vehicles. The key point is that they charge their vehicles at night, when renewable energy is not available. And given that the Waymo vehicles drive around empty half the time and that their Jaguar I-Pace vehicles are obnoxiously inefficient, their energy use and resulting emissions are egregious.

Waymo “clean energy” claims

Waymo has always touted that their system provides a major benefit by using only “clean” and renewable energy. They repeatedly claim this in their dealings with the California PUC. The documents below are from the CPUC quarterly reports that Waymo submitted on March 29th, 2024.

They cleverly state that they are purchasing renewable energy for their EV chargers. Yet note that they are careful to not falsely claim that their vehicles are powered by renewable energy. It is because they are not!

Their claims to the CPUC can be seen in full in their document below:

Haven’t we seen this kind of marketing before?

Yes we certainly have. Remember Juul and the other world changing vaping companies with their immense marketing campaigns? They had the solution for stopping smoking! They were going to save the world! But once researchers looked at the numbers it turned out that vaping was not a solution at all. It was certainly effective marketing, but certainly not a product that was good for society, no matter how many cool ads they put out. Making something electric by developing new technologies, and then hyping it, is not always the answer. It didn’t solve smoking. It won’t solve car dependency.

Charging EVs at night

Everyone knows that the Waymo vehicles are mostly charged at night. After all, their entire purpose is to provide transportation when there is demand. And the vast majority of demand is during the day, into the early evening. The time the vehicles are idle and available for charging is at night.

But at night the mix of the source of electricity is very different. Solar power is only available via batteries, and large scale batteries are quite limited in capacity. And just because one purchases only “clean energy” (which I happily do myself, and I recommend to everyone in order to increase the demand for clean energy), the electricity one receives at night is completely fungible. Electrons are electrons. It doesn’t matter what you have paid for. You simply get what is currently being produced. And at night the biggest share of electricity production is from definitely-not-clean-nor-renewable Natural Gas, nuclear, and large hydro.

Shifting instead to uncontrolled, daytime charging can reduce storage requirements, excess non-fossil fuel generation, ramping and emissions. Our results urge policymakers to reflect generation-level impacts in utility rates and deploy charging infrastructure that promotes a shift from home to daytime charging.

Nature Energy – 2022

We need to charge EVs during the daytime. This means that when EVs are charged at night they are not clean nor renewable, no matter what Waymo marketing says. Therefore Waymo charging their EVs at night is their dirty little secret. And they clearly want to keep it a secret.

For details on the problems of charging EVs at night see the articles listed below:

Certain that they are not charged during the day?

Given that Waymo refuses to make charging data public, we have to look for other sources of information. The following is a really straight forward piece of evidence. The short video clip shows how the Waymo vehicles can spend part of the day parked, for free, on public streets instead of charging up with potentially clean energy. Somehow they have not mentioned this practice to the CPUC.

Data on source of electricity generation

The California Independent System Operator (CaISO.com) provides excellent data on electricity production in California. See https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook/supply for this very useful resource.

The chart below shows the electricity production sources at minute intervals for 3/29/2024. That specific date was chosen because it was the date that Waymo submitted their request to the CPUC to hide charging data from the public. It is also very close to the Vernal Equinox, which provides a reasonable average value for quantity of solar power available.

Detailed numbers for the sources of electricity are shown for 9pm. The time was chosen because it is an estimate of when most of the Waymo vehicles would start to be charged. The later at night the EVs are charged, the worst the energy mix becomes as battery power decreases and imported energy (mostly not clean nor renewable) increases. If Waymo would provide charging data we would be able to refine the numbers significantly. But we do know that they are not good.

The following chart is based on the exact same data, but presented as a stacked chart so that one can more easily see the proportion of each source of electricity.

The key information from these charts is that the biggest source of electricity used at night, which is most certainly when the Waymo vehicles are charged, is Natural Gas, a most definitely not clean nor renewable source.

Imported Electricity

California imports a significant amount of electricity at night. Imported electricity is an important consideration since its generation source is not specified, and it can be quite dirty.

The chart below shows how during night a significant portion of the electricity in California is imported from out of state.

Unfortunately neighboring states do not provide a very clean source of electricity. The chart below for neighboring Nevada shows that most of their electricity comes from Natural Gas. Even worse, a significant amount comes from coal! The worst issue is that since most of their renewable energy comes from solar, imported electricity, which is used and generated at night, is almost all fossil fuel based.

Yes, this does mean that regardless of Waymo’s claims of only using renewable energy, some of it is actually generated by coal since they charge their vehicles at night when California imports electricity from neighbors including Nevada.

Incremental electricity demand uses dirty energy

All of the currently available clean energy is always already taken. Therefore simply are not situations in California where the ISO has to turn away solar or wind power. This means that there isn’t available clean energy when one creates additional demand. Whether it is crypto mining or EV robotaxis, the incremental demand will be supplied by power plants that can easily produce more. Nuclear and hydro supply cannot be increased.

Every incremental use of electricity is therefore provided by Natural Gas, or even coal if it has to be imported because it is used at night.

It doesn’t matter how much one has paid for “renewable energy”. Incremental use means that more Natural Gas (and possibly coal) will be burned.

Eventually California will have even greater supply of solar and wind power, and sufficient large scale batteries to store the energy until it is needed. But we are not at that point today.

Waymo robotaxis are more polluting than gas powered alternatives

When researching this report we were shocked to learn that Waymo EVs are actually more polluting than good gas powered alternatives. Many, including the marketing people at Waymo, claim that their vehicles are inherently clean and beneficial simply because they are powered by electricity. On average this is certainly true, but only “on average”.

And there are some excellent charts in the article Electric cars are better for the climate than petrol or diesel showing that on average EVs certainly are better. The following chart from that report shows how for US average energy mix that EVs typically have less emissions (though the non-average Land Rover should not have been included in the report):

The report goes on to show that after 10 years of driving, based on averages, an EV would produce just half the emissions of a “comparable” gas powered vehicle.

But Waymo robotaxi service is in no way “average”. There are actually several reasons why their service does not reduce emissions, regardless of what they claim to the CPUC.

Problem 1: Waymo vehicles drive twice as far per passenger trip

This issue is quite simple. By examining California PUC data we were able to determine that Waymo vehicles are empty of passengers for just over half of their VMT. We used to be concerned about the scourge of “single-occupancy vehicles”, but Waymo service is far worse. Half the time they are the new low: “zero-occupancy vehicles”. This means that the Waymo vehicles drive 2 miles for every mile passengers are transported. Even if you use the data that on average EVs produce half as much emissions per mile, you can easily see that the vehicles being half empty completely eliminates that benefit. EVs are good for society, but Waymo service is not.

Problem 2: They charge their vehicles at night

As described earlier, Waymo EVs do not have average energy usage since the vehicles are charged at night when renewable energy is simply not available. This means that the energy mix that Waymo uses results in higher than average emissions. Again, EVs are good, but Waymo vehicles charged at night are not.

Problem 3: Waymo vehicles are energy hogs

While on average EVs produce half as much emissions as gas powered vehicles, Waymo vehicles are unfortunately not average at all. Instead, they are expensive, heavy, and flauntingly profligate Jaguar I-Pace $70k 394hp high-performance SUVs.

The question is therefore not how much better EVs are on average, but how much better Jaguar I-Pace vehicles are compared to gas powered vehicles that are commonly used to transport people around in San Francisco. This of course means the ubiquitous Toyota Prius, widely used in San Francisco as taxis and ride hailing (Uber and Lyft) vehicles.

Fortunately there is an excellent source of data on EV emissions for individual vehicle makes. The source is carbonCounter.com, a system created by Marco Motti and Jessika E. Trancik at the MIT Trancik Lab.

The data on the font page the site is for many makes of vehicles. As expected, it shows that on average that gas powered vehicles (black dots) emit much more greenhouse gases than electric vehicles (unfortunately the y-axis does not start at zero making comparisons more difficult).

But when one specifically looks at the Waymo Jaguar I-Pace compared to a Toyota Prius you can see that lifecyle Greenhouse Gas emissions are actually worse for the Jaguar (and the lifetime cost $682.4/month of the Jaguar I-Pace is almost twice that of a Prius $358.2/month). The lifecyle Greenhouse Gas emissions of the Jaguar I-Pace is 276.5 gCO2eq/mile while the Toyota Prius is just 241.6 gCO2eq/mile:

And note that the above numbers are for average electricity generation sources. Since the Waymo I-Pace vehicles are being charged at night, when far less renewable energy is available, the actual Greenhouse Gas emissions for Waymo vehicles are even worse than shown on carbonCounter.com . The Waymo vehicles are not anywhere as clean as represented to the CPUC.

Waymo explicitly hiding charging data from public

While Waymo touts its commitment to clean energy, they simultaneously ask the CPUC to not allow the details of charging their electric vehicles, including the timing of when vehicles are charged, to be seen by the public. They falsely and misleadingly declare that the charging data is a “trade secret” that “derives independent economic value , actual or potential, from not being generally known to the public or to other persons who can obtain economic value from its disclosure or use”. But the charging data is not a trade secret, and certainly is not relevant to the privacy of Waymo’s riders. They are simply trying to obscure that their vehicles are being charged at night when clean energy is not available.

The CPUC specifically requires data on “Charging session data including time, day”. But a document submitted to the CPUC on 3/29/2024 by the Waymo Chief Legal Officer provides the following weak justification for redacting the data:

Trade secret: The compilation of Charging-Sessions data, such as SessionDate time, reflects sensitive and valuable data that Waymo collects and maintains with effort and expense for business analytics and product improvement purposes and reflects Waymo’s strategic business decisions and provides critical insights into the impact and effectiveness of those decisions. For example, analysis of the number and location of available electric vehicle charging stations and charging duration of Waymo’s AVs could reveal the strategic business decisions regarding where and how Waymo has invested resources in this early stage of its attempt to create a competing ride-hailing product. Waymo implements reasonable measures to protect the confidentiality of its compiled Charging-Sessions data and provides a confidential version of this data to CPED pursuant to regulatory requirements. If Waymo’s competitors obtained access to Waymo’s Charging-Sessions data, they could analyze the data to gain valuable insights into Waymo’s anticipated customer base, fleet utilization rate and optimization capabilities and requirements, marketing strategies, and other critical aspects of its business that Waymo does not publicly disclose, causing Waymo irreparable harm.

Declaration submitted to CPUC by Waymo Chief Legal Officer on 3/29/2024

But clearly the time of charging their vehicles is not strategically important information. Everyone already knows that they are charged at night. We simply need Waymo to acknowledge that fact and provide the relevant data so that we can understand their true sources of electricity in detail. The public has a right to know the details for the vehicles that are using our public roads.

The full declaration submitted to the CPUC by Waymo asking for charging information to be redacted from the public:

But what about these other “clean energy” sources available at night??

Some argue that some of nighttime sources of California energy are “clean energy” as well, and that they should count as such. But other large sources of electricity generation that are available at night, including large scale hydro, nuclear, and “natural” gas are, explicitly separated out by the CPUC as not being renewable or clean. Therefore energy generated by them does not help Waymo attain their marketing objective of their system only using “clean energy”. The reason the CPUC does not consider these sources renewable or clean are described below.

Large Hydroelectric power is not truly clean nor renewable

What people don’t realize is that these reservoirs actually emit a lot of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, both of which are strong greenhouse gases

Ilissa Ocko, Senior Climate Scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund

Damming rivers or creating new reservoirs can obstruct fish migration and ruin surrounding ecosystems and habitats. Dams and reservoirs have even displaced tens of millions of people throughout history, usually indigenous or rural communities.

CNBC June 2, 2022

A new study says that many large-scale hydropower projects in Europe and the US have been disastrous for the environment.

Dozens of these dams are being removed every year, with many considered dangerous and uneconomic.

BBC Nov 5, 2018 Large hydropower dams ‘not sustainable’ in the developing world

The following articles contain useful information on the problems of large-scale hydropower :

• CNBC Jun 2, 2022 – Why hydropower is the forgotten giant of clean energy
• RiverNet.org – Twelve Reasons to Exclude Large Hydro from Renewables Initiatives
• BBC Nov 5, 2018 – Large hydropower dams ‘not sustainable’ in the developing world

Nuclear power is not clean or green

No contemporary energy source is as environmentally irresponsible, imposes such a high liability on taxpayers, or is as dangerous as nuclear power. Industry efforts to “greenwash” nuclear energy make a mockery of clean energy goals. Although nuclear reactors do not emit carbon dioxide, promoting nuclear risks to reduce greenhouse emissions is the classic jump from the frying pan into the fire!

Public Citizen – Nuclear Power Is Not Clean or Green!

Among politicians and industry groups, it is consistently favoured over meaningful investment in renewable energy systems, bolstered with misleading claims of its safety, efficiency, stability, and speed of deployment.

Greenpeace – 6 reasons why nuclear energy is not the way to a green and peaceful world

Natural Gas is certainly not clean nor renewable

And as the Union of Concerned Scientists have reported, Natural Gas power is not clean.

We already have clean transportation. It’s called “public transit’!

For decades, public transportation in San Francisco has been incredibly clean. BART has always been electrified. The SFMTA streetcars have always been electrified. The SFMTA trolley buses have always been electrified. And soon Caltrain will be as well. And the electricity for the SFMTA vehicles comes from the 85-year old hydroelectric Hetch Hetchy Water and Power System. While large scale hydro is not considered renewable, it is very clean.

Plus public transportation doesn’t cause pollution generating congestion like the Waymo robotaxis do. In fact, public transportation reduces congestion, benefiting everyone. And the current Waymo trips could be handled by public transportation without any significant additional energy required.

If Waymo honestly wants to support clean transportation they would stop their service and focus their efforts on further getting people to use public transportation.

What Waymo should do

Waymo needs to stop obfuscating their source of electricity. They need to stop redacting the timing information of when they charge their vehicles. And they need to stop misrepresenting the energy that they use as “clean energy”. It simply is not.

And the way for them to actually use clean energy is to create their own battery system that can take cleaner electricity from the grid and store it until they use it to charge their cars at night. There is no expectation that they would discontinue charging their vehicles at night. But if they want to honestly claim that they use clean energy they need to actually do so and obtain the electricity during the day.